WORLD’S GREATEST MINING FRANCHISE

Barry Sergeant|

06 February 2010 21:50

Exxaro (and other) iron ore wannabes

Article tools

Print article
Send to friend

65 listed iron ore development companies twist like devils to get to the front of a global pack.

JOHANNESBURG - Johannesburg-listed Exxaro, with interests in coal, mineral sands and base metals, this week told the Indaba mining conference in Cape Town that it was "pursuing several iron ore and ferrous opportunities, building on internal iron ore skills set, and AlloystreamTM technology".

This is a tall order, all right. Exxaro holds 20% in the Sishen Iron Ore Company, in South Africa's Northern Cape, and falling under the Kumba Iron Ore umbrella. Kumba is a relatively small player in the world's most profitable mining franchise, seaborne iron ore, where 75% of the trade is owned by the three kings of the business, Brazilian supergroup Vale, with its fabulous Carajás material, BHP Billiton, the world's biggest diversified resources group, and Rio Tinto.

Reflecting the status of the franchise, the stocks are ranked as the top three most valuable mining companies in the world, with BHP Billiton on top, followed by Vale.

The emphasis on seaborne is important. China is - by far - the world's biggest miner of iron ore, but remains net short, and has an insatiable thirst, especially for higher grade material than mined in the country. As in just about everything else, grade (quality) is crucial in the iron ore game.

Some idea of the value of the seaborne iron ore franchise was given in early June 2009, when Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton announced that BHP Billiton would pay Rio Tinto USD 5.8bn "for equity type interests at financial close" to take its interest in the two companies' Pilbara, Australia iron ore joint venture from 45% to 50%. This valued the full joint venture at USD 116bn. Seen as a stand alone entity, the BHP Billiton-Rio Tinto Pilbara iron ore joint venture would rank as one of the world's top five miners, by value.

Seaborne iron ore is a very expensive business to get into, as shown by Anglo American's experiences in 2007 and 2008, when it paid a total of USD 6.7bn to buy 100% of Minas Rio in Brazil, and also 49% of LLX Minas Rio (port of Açu). Railways and ports are essential in this game; Vale even operates its own giant shipping fleet.  Anglo American may have already spent billions acquiring Minas Rio, but has budgeted a further USD 3.6bn for capital expenditure to fully develop the phase 1 (only) system, due to reach full production only towards the end of 2013, at the rate of 27m tons a year, wet basis.

To give that some perspective, BHP Billiton recently approved USD 1.9bn capital expenditure for the RPG6 expansion project in the Pilbara. This will increase BHP Billiton's installed capacity in the Pilbara to 240m tons a year, dry basis, during calendar 2013.

Perfect timing for entry into seaborne iron ore would have been about seven years ago. In its 2002 annual report, Australia-listed Allied Mining & Processing said it was considering an "entry contribution for an investment in an operating gold business in Peru". Much time and effort had been put into evaluating the opportunity, and the board was confident that within 12 months it would be successful in securing a project on which it would be able to put its principal assets to use.

BHP Billiton, year to 30 June

 

 

Underlying earnings before interest & tax

 

USD m

2009

2008

2007

Oil & gas

4,085

5,485

3,014

Aluminium

192

1,465

1,856

Base metals

1,292

7,989

6,875

Diamonds/other

145

189

197

Stainless materials

-854

1,275

3,675

Iron ore

6,229

4,631

2,728

Manganese

1,349

1,644

253

Coking coal

4,711

937

1,247

Steam coal

1,460

1,057

481

Other

-395

-390

-259

Total

18,214

24,282

20,067

 

As a consequence of the strategy, the board had decided to divest its non-core businesses, including Allied Medical, and the Mt Nicholas iron ore project. In 2003, The Metal Group acquired Allied Mining & Processing. Going beyond substantial tenements at Mt Nicholas, the new owners promptly acquired Iron Ore Australia - along with its Mt Lewin tenements - and went big on iron ore. The acquiring group bought with it a new CEO, Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest, and a change in name to Fortescue Metals.

Today, with a market value of USD 12.3bn, Fortescue ranks as 35th most valuable listed mining company in the world. As for the gold projects, two - the Jinya gold project in China and the Colibri Mining projects in Peru - had been taken to an advanced stage but "did not ultimately proceed". Forrest saw off most of the previous directors and oversaw the sale of Australia's Red Dam gold project and the Mobile Mineral Process Evaluation Unit to Allied Gold for AUD 2.5m. Today, Allied Gold has a market value of USD 264m, less than 2% of Fortescue's market value.

For the likes of Exxaro, wishing to get into the iron ore game, there are no less than 65 listed stocks, mostly on Australian soil, that can be broadly classified as iron ore developers, ranging from the likes of Aquila, a diversified stock, with a market value of USD 2.3bn, to far smaller stocks such as Adriana Resources, with iron ore interests in Brazil and Quebec.

There are also a good number of entities around that world, most of them large, that have integrated upstream, mining iron ore and then producing steel and allied products, such as Russia's Evraz (USD 12.2bn) and Severstal (USD 11.5bn), and Brazil's Usiminas (USD 6.6bn); established iron ore names are also possibilities, such as India's NMDC (USD 39bn).  Exxaro has natural limits, given it standing market value of USD 4.6bn.

The demonstrable rebirth of iron ore has stimulated all kinds of recovery projects and mining around the world; Magnetation, found on Minnesota's gigantic, but low grade, iron ore range, is just one example. Palladon Ventures has looked at reopening a Utah iron ore mine; other smaller miners have looked at opening or reopening iron ore mines in Alaska, Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico. This is a vast global sector, indeed, that includes major state owned players such as Luossavaara Kiirunavaara AB (LKAB, Sweden), and Société Nationale Industrielle et Minière (SNIM, Mauritania).

Selected iron ore names

 

 

THE THREE KINGS

Stock

From

From

Value

 

price

high*

low*

USD bn

Vale

USD 25.20

-21.2%

113.2%

133.283

Rio Tinto

GBP 29.97

-20.8%

126.7%

112.044

BHP Billiton

GBP 18.28

-15.8%

78.3%

178.103

Big three averages/total

 

-19.2%

106.1%

423.430

Weighted average

 

-18.9%

99.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

TIER II, PURE/DIVERSIFIED

 

 

 

Evraz

USD 29.45

-22.3%

292.7%

12.192

Minmetals

CNY 16.52

-40.1%

9.5%

2.594

Hunan Valin

CNY 6.06

-42.1%

26.3%

2.430

Severstal

USD 11.41

-10.9%

256.5%

11.494

Citic Pacific

HKD 16.06

-33.8%

123.7%

7.540

Vedanta

GBP 23.57

-20.6%

378.3%

10.017

Gerdau

BRL 19.18

-18.5%

119.2%

5.075

Steel Aut. India

INR 204.70

-23.3%

194.5%

18.136

Beijing Shougang

CNY 5.00

-33.0%

53.4%

2.173

Orissa Sponge

INR 342.00

-27.7%

128.3%

0.147

NMDC

INR 458.55

-19.8%

227.3%

38.997

CAP

CLP 16,568.00

-4.3%

118.3%

4.551

Fortescue

AUD 4.51

-19.0%

118.9%

12.103

Anglo American

GBP 22.52

-24.0%

148.6%

47.429

ENRC

GBP 8.76

-18.1%

189.7%

17.681

CSN

USD 29.16

-23.5%

146.1%

22.021

Mechel

USD 20.01

-24.9%

558.2%

8.330

Kumba Iron Ore

ZAR 308.95

-7.4%

120.6%

12.851

MMX Mineracao

BRL 13.20

-17.3%

405.7%

2.146

ARM

ZAR 161.31

-14.8%

56.6%

4.445

Cliffs Natural

USD 40.23

-27.4%

240.9%

5.587

Usiminas

BRL 48.99

-13.6%

134.5%

6.594

Sesa Goa

INR 347.85

-20.9%

389.6%

6.122

Assore

ZAR 695.00

-7.3%

117.2%

2.504

Labrador Iron

CAD 45.39

-10.4%

95.1%

1.351

Magnitogorsk

USD 0.97

-11.5%

332.7%

10.783

Tier II averages/total

 

-20.6%

191.6%

275.289

Weighted average

 

-20.8%

175.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

TIER III, DEVELOPERS & OTHERS

 

 

 

Golden West Resources

AUD 0.68

-35.8%

161.5%

0.084

Ferrexpo

GBP 1.97

-20.2%

339.1%

1.814

Aquila

AUD 8.14

-28.5%

371.3%

2.268

Mount Gibson Iron

AUD 1.35

-28.1%

220.2%

1.253

AusQuest

AUD 0.12

-41.0%

43.8%

0.023

Murchison

AUD 2.08

-29.3%

311.9%

0.783

Cons.Thompson

CAD 7.25

-11.8%

414.2%

1.536

Atlas Iron

AUD 1.85

-21.6%

71.3%

0.715

Gindalbie

AUD 0.91

-30.4%

79.2%

0.553

Australasian Resources

AUD 0.48

-32.1%

63.8%

0.182

Northern Iron

AUD 1.29

-35.5%

58.7%

0.326

African Minerals

GBP 3.77

-17.3%

1782.5%

1.261

London Mining

NOK 19.20

-25.0%

114.5%

0.351

Baffinland

CAD 0.49

-35.3%

203.1%

0.154

Sundance Resources

AUD 0.12

-44.2%

71.4%

0.281

Cardero Resources

CAD 1.45

-32.6%

64.8%

0.079

Northland Resources

CAD 1.80

-10.0%

373.7%

0.185

Sphere Investments

AUD 0.94

-35.6%

347.6%

0.122

Admiralty Resources

AUD 0.01

-62.2%

27.3%

0.025

Giralia

AUD 1.52

-16.9%

415.3%

0.234

Sarda Energy

INR 200.00

-19.6%

300.0%

0.146

Red Hill Iron

AUD 3.42

-17.0%

242.0%

0.130

CBH Resources

AUD 0.13

-32.4%

303.2%

0.118

Strike

AUD 0.69

-45.0%

136.2%

0.077

Brockman

AUD 2.71

-8.8%

234.6%

0.325

Golden West Resources

AUD 0.68

-35.8%

161.5%

0.084

United Minerals

AUD 1.30

0.0%

154.9%

0.174

Ferraus

AUD 0.76

-20.8%

406.7%

0.117

New Millennium

CAD 0.84

-13.4%

211.1%

0.104

Centaurus

AUD 0.50

-27.5%

177.8%

0.017

Indo Mines

AUD 0.35

-36.4%

125.8%

0.025

Cape Lambert

AUD 0.42

-33.9%

100.0%

0.205

Great Northern

USD 89.00

-7.3%

47.4%

0.134

Beowulf Mining

GBP 0.03

-27.0%

170.0%

0.003

Centrex

AUD 0.53

-34.4%

262.1%

0.141

Grange

AUD 0.32

-51.2%

63.2%

0.031

Sandur

INR 526.50

-32.7%

202.6%

0.099

Nalwa

INR 1,038.00

-31.0%

130.7%

0.114

BC Iron

AUD 1.14

-23.1%

245.0%

0.082

Western Plains

AUD 0.41

-22.6%

190.8%

0.037

IMX Resources

AUD 0.42

-16.2%

151.5%

0.072

Flinders

AUD 0.14

-31.5%

164.7%

0.212

Iron Ore Holdings

AUD 2.13

-13.4%

1369.0%

0.219

Mindax

AUD 0.49

-11.8%

61.7%

0.055

Aurox Resources

AUD 0.33

-33.7%

261.1%

0.054

Polaris Metals

AUD 0.71

-18.4%

610.0%

0.123

Haoma Mining

AUD 0.13

-39.0%

127.3%

0.020

Cullen Resources

AUD 0.04

-53.5%

60.0%

0.019

Adriana Resources

CAD 0.43

-41.0%

165.6%

0.031

Jupiter Mines

AUD 0.20

-20.0%

185.7%

0.064

Macarthur Minerals

AUD 1.22

-44.5%

87.7%

0.027

Talisman Mining

AUD 0.87

-39.6%

411.8%

0.071

Anglesey Mining

GBP 0.22

-28.8%

493.3%

0.053

Ironclad

AUD 1.09

-31.0%

585.5%

0.041

Helix

AUD 0.09

-42.7%

72.0%

0.010

Maximus

AUD 0.03

-42.0%

26.1%

0.007

Venture Minerals

AUD 0.33

-34.0%

302.4%

0.043

Apollo Minerals

AUD 0.16

-61.3%

14.8%

0.015

Monax Mining

AUD 0.08

-37.5%

257.1%

0.009

Iron Mountain

AUD 0.08

-42.1%

68.0%

0.009

Cazaly

AUD 0.38

-26.2%

190.1%

0.032

Red Rock

GBP 0.02

-37.5%

140.0%

0.013

Renison Consolidated

AUD 0.01

-41.7%

600.0%

0.011

Baobab Resources

GBP 0.09

-51.4%

600.0%

0.022

Centrex Metals

AUD 0.53

-34.4%

262.1%

0.141

Averages/total

 

-30.0%

252.4%

15.765

Weighted averages/total

-25.2%

238.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overall averages/totals

 

-27.5%

233.7%

714.485

Overall weighted averages

-19.8%

125.7%

 

* 12 month

 

 

 

 

Source: market data; tables compiled by Barry Sergeant

 

 

COMMENTS

 
 responses to this article


Name
Subject
Comment

Similar articles

Blogs

Soapbox

The end of the beginning...

Back to the future...with more global quantitative easing from nervous central banks

Deepest, Darkest, Richest

That giant sucking sound

The brain drain and economic development.

Soapbox

Is China the knight in shining armour?

Without massive government intervention in the Chinese economy the world would be in ...